Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.103022 0.116554 0.131195 0.148214 0.167457 0.188546 0.213416
2025-12-28 0.083470 0.101486 0.122413 0.148522 0.180245 0.217565 0.264851
2026-01-04 0.067056 0.087060 0.111848 0.144839 0.187644 0.241377 0.314077
2026-01-11 0.055585 0.076752 0.104621 0.144035 0.198432 0.271009 0.375473
2026-01-18 0.047184 0.069051 0.099539 0.145206 0.212021 0.306464 0.450609
2026-01-25 0.038248 0.059125 0.089848 0.138425 0.213530 0.325638 0.506500
2026-02-01 0.030914 0.050326 0.080386 0.130414 0.211903 0.339984 0.557765
2026-02-08 0.025800 0.044111 0.073871 0.125866 0.214860 0.361764 0.624351
2026-02-15 0.021587 0.038663 0.067716 0.120873 0.216234 0.381146 0.690267
2026-02-22 0.019202 0.035951 0.065720 0.122640 0.229446 0.422555 0.801375
2026-03-01 0.016374 0.031971 0.060866 0.118472 0.231274 0.444024 0.879804
2026-03-08 0.014187 0.028833 0.057061 0.115629 0.235085 0.469669 0.970467
2026-03-15 0.012310 0.026056 0.053631 0.113207 0.239847 0.498940 1.075790
2026-03-22 0.011201 0.024660 0.052727 0.115797 0.255352 0.552456 1.241505
2026-03-29 0.009914 0.022669 0.050282 0.114726 0.262942 0.590826 1.381834
2026-04-05 0.008946 0.021221 0.048773 0.115479 0.274764 0.640498 1.557249
2026-04-12 0.008188 0.020126 0.047878 0.117503 0.289917 0.700355 1.768124
2026-04-19 0.007103 0.018065 0.044417 0.112825 0.288241 0.720547 1.886070
2026-04-26 0.006101 0.016035 0.040703 0.106887 0.282416 0.729732 1.978081
2026-05-03 0.005376 0.014587 0.038195 0.103598 0.282847 0.754784 2.116924
2026-05-10 0.004723 0.013218 0.035664 0.099814 0.281314 0.774532 2.245352
2026-05-17 0.004387 0.012657 0.035173 0.101522 0.295211 0.838183 2.510274
2026-05-24 0.003891 0.011560 0.033050 0.098263 0.294453 0.861145 2.661145